Werd I/O

[Damian Carrington in The Guardian]

Quite a headline!

"The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks, said Günther Thallinger, on the board of Allianz SE, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies. He said that without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments."

Entire regions are becoming uninsurable - for example, the piece highlights home insurance in many parts of California becoming hard to obtain. Much of finance depends on insurance underwriting, so as these effects spread, so do the knock-on impacts on financial markets.

"At 3C of global heating, climate damage cannot be insured against, covered by governments, or adapted to, Thallinger said: “That means no more mortgages, no new real estate development, no long-term investment, no financial stability. The financial sector as we know it ceases to function. And with it, capitalism as we know it ceases to be viable.”"

De-risking the climate crisis is becoming more and more important - and this has been an imperative for decades. The call here to put sustainability goals on the same level as financial goals is smart. But we're in an era where we're turning our backs against this sort of thinking - and towards unadulterated greed, consequences be damned. Getting out of the climate mess means first getting out of this other mess that we're all in.

#Climate

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[Abrahm Lustgarten at ProPublica]

"For a generation, conservatives — not just the far right, which Crusius appeared to identify with — had propelled the notion that climate change was a hoax fabricated so the government could impose new restrictions on the economy and society. Yet Crusius hadn’t denied climate change at all. Instead, he seemed to claim its impacts were themselves arguments justifying his violence."

Abrahm Lustgarten has written a sobering piece about the far right's embrace of climate change as a root for anti-immigrant and eugenicist sentiments. We can see this playing out among conservative groups across the country: in a world where resources are becoming more scarce, preserving "white European ideals and beliefs" becomes a part of "preserving the purity of [America's] ecology".

Ecofascism has been with us for a long time, and unfortunately has long been a subset of climate movements. But as the planet heats up and climate discussions become less hypothetical and more immediate, these conversations are becoming louder, too.

#Climate

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[Damian Carrington at The Guardian]

Meanwhile, while we're all paying attention elsewhere:

"More and more scientists are now looking into the possibility of societal collapse, said the report, which assessed 35 vital signs in 2023 and found that 25 were worse than ever recorded, including carbon dioxide levels and human population. This indicates a “critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis”, they said."

And:

"“Climate change has already displaced millions of people, with the potential to displace hundreds of millions or even billions,” he said. “That would likely lead to greater geopolitical instability, possibly even partial societal collapse.”"

And:

"The assessment concludes: “Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance.”"

In a world where everything seems amplified and like it's from some kind of comic book version of reality, making it hard to engage with it as actual truth, it's imperative that we don't gloss over this. We all have to change, and we all have to demand change.

#Climate

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[Molly Lempriere and Simon Evans in CarbonBrief]

"Remarkably, the UK’s coal power phaseout – as well as the closure of some of the country’s few remaining blast furnaces at Port Talbot in Wales and Scunthorpe in Lincolnshire – will help push overall coal demand in 2024 to its lowest level since the 1600s."

The UK aims to fully decarbonize its power supplies by 2030. That involves phasing out gas power in under six years: a big milestone and an ambitious goal, and one it hopes will be a case study for other nations.

Meanwhile, the US continues to limp along, generating around 60% of its electricity from fossil fuels. In light of accelerating climate change, that's a figure we should be truly embarrassed about.

#Climate

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[Helene Smith at The Guardian]

"Barely six months into the job, the mayor of Athens’s top priority is simple: ensuring that the people of Greece’s capital – mainland Europe’s hottest metropolis – survive the summer. After a June that was the hottest on record, the city has already witnessed record-breaking temperatures and wildfires."

We're deeply into the climate crisis at this point; a major city having to make major changes in order to "survive the summer" is just another example.

When you get into the detail, it's terrifying - particularly considering that we're still only at the foothills of where the crisis will lead us:

“It’s not a matter of lifestyle, or improving the quality of life; it’s about survival when 23% of the green lung around Athens has in recent years been destroyed by fires. It’s vital we have more trees, more air-conditioned community centres and more water stations on our streets and squares.”

Over time, we're going to see mass migrations and real, sustained changes to the way people live. We're also going to see a great deal of suffering. These are things we've been warned about for many decades, but the stories are transitioning from projections from climate experts to being the news headlines.

The onus is on the international community to respond to the crisis with robust energy, but we've been waiting for decades for this to really happen. Instead we get carbon trading schemes and economic deals that don't cut to the core of the problem.

There's an individual responsibility, too. These days that responsibility goes beyond making sensible choices about our own energy use (although most of us don't) and extends to voting, taking to the streets, and making it clear to our leaders that continued inaction is not acceptable.

If there isn't change, wars will be fought over this. In a certain light, they already are.

#Climate

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"A recent MIT study indicated that “the cloud” now has a larger carbon footprint than the airline industry, and that “a single data center can consume the equivalent electricity of 50,000 homes.” The study also cites the enormous cooling costs, the huge volumes of water required, and the noise pollution affecting local communities."

A useful step back to look at the internet's relationship with climate change: how it helps as a conduit for scientific research and testing, as a contributor through emissions and vast electricity usage, and as a recipient through rising sea levels and other adverse climate effects.

I've personally had a very hard time finding hosting providers who are genuinely green - using direct renewable energy rather than offsets, and taking steps to mitigate their water use. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The internet feels green, because we don't see everything that is involved in keeping us online, but it very much isn't. There's a lot of work to do in order to reduce our harmful impact on the planet. #Climate

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This hadn't really been on my radar:

"Just one type of next generation geothermal — called superhot rock energy, where deep drilling reaches temperatures 400 degrees Celsius (752 degrees Fahrenheit) or hotter — is abundant enough to theoretically fulfill the world’s power requirements. In fact, just 1 percent of the world’s superhot rock potential could provide 63 terawatts of clean firm power, which would meet global electricity demand nearly eight times over."

What's absolutely fascinating to me is the idea that fracking techniques could be used to unlock geothermal energy. Is that good? Fracking has negative side effects that go beyond the carbon footprint from oil and gas. On the other hand, of course, moving away from fossil fuels is obviously great. #Climate

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"Americans bought 21 percent more heat pumps in 2023 than the next-most popular heating appliance, fossil gas furnaces." Quietly, the way we heat our homes is changing - and it has the potential to make a big impact.

Because heat pumps use around a quarter of the energy of a conventional furnace, and don't necessarily depend on fossil fuels at all, the aggregate energy savings could be really significant. Anecdotally (I have a steam furnace that I hate with the fire of a thousand suns), it's also just a far better system.

It might not seem like a particularly sexy technology, but there's scope to spend a little effort here on UX in the same way that Nest did for thermostats and make an even bigger impact. #Climate

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"Limiting average global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels has been the gold standard for climate action since at least the 2015 Paris Agreement. A new scientific study published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change, however, suggests that the world unknowingly passed this benchmark back in 2020."

Not so great, but what's cool here is how they determined this: by analyzing strontium to calcium ratios in a species of sea sponge that lives for hundreds of years. Previously we'd only been able to determine ocean temperatures starting in 1850, when the industrial revolution was already underway.

This new analysis suggests that the pre-industrial oceans were cooler than had been previously understood, meaning we may be 20 years further along the global warming curve than we'd known. Even more reason to take dramatic action now. #Climate

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"“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition,” said Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations."

How realistic is that in a world where fossil fuels are so deeply baked into our economies and business models? I'm not saying this in a defensive way: it's hard to not believe we're completely hosed.

It would be one thing if we were all aligned as people, but there are enough powerful interests out there who want to stop what needs to be done in its tracks. Is there any reason to even hold out a glimmer of hope? #Climate

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"Coal must be phased out seven times faster than is now happening, deforestation must be reduced four times faster, and public transport around the world built out six times faster than at present, if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate breakdown, new research has found."

Well, this is heartening. #Climate

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Management consultants are to blame, for sure, but so are politicians for taking the bait. We know that there's big oil and gas money pushing against real solutions to climate change - anyone who's in that space needs to be vigilant against it.

One aspect of this might, perhaps, have been to not allow the talks to take place in one of the world's largest oil-producing nations. But here we are.

None of this is to say that McKinsey is off the hook for this kind of behavior. If this is happening, it's right to name and shame them. It's just: there are a lot of other people who should take some blame, too. #Climate

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"As a society we need to start treating computational resources as finite and precious, to be utilised only when necessary, and as effectively as possible. We need frugal computing: achieving our aims with less energy and material." #Climate

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Another reason why the really sustainable solution to pollution from cars is better mass transit. #Climate

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“The vast majority of the environmental projects most frequently used to offset greenhouse gas emissions appear to have fundamental failings suggesting they cannot be relied upon to cut planet-heating emissions, according to a new analysis.” #Climate

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“This update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.” No biggie. #Climate

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Another way the effect of the climate crisis is understated: climate deaths are undercounted. Changing this state of affairs is possible but requires effort, training, and resources. In the meantime, many people still don’t understand how serious the crisis actually is. #Climate

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It makes sense that oil companies would try to frame driving a gas car as freedom. As an EV driver, I can tell you that it is not. I would prefer if we all had great, integrated public transit - but for the moment, at least, it has been an improvement in every way for me as a driver. I'll never go back. #Climate

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I’m surprised that mandatory disclosure of carbon emissions isn’t widespread - it does seem like the prerequisite to making any change. And yeah, these companies should pay. And be forced to reduce their emissions. And be fined heavily, and prosecuted, when they don’t. #Climate

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Interesting commentary on "economic theories that have led to government by markets, fuelling financial and other shocks, and the rise of authoritarian, and even neo-fascist regimes promising citizens ‘protection’ from ‘globalised’ markets.” #Climate

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“Whenever someone says, “we’ll adapt to climate change,” 100% of the time it’s a rich person. Poor people never say “we’ll adapt” because they know they can’t afford it. For them, adaptation = suffering.” That's the pull-quote for me: this won't affect everyone equally. As always, the most vulnerable, the people who are already struggling the most, will suffer the worst of it. #Climate

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31 straight days of 110°F / 43°C heat. And then only a short reprieve before more of it. Ocean surface temperatures at over 90°F / 32°C. And still there are people who deny we’re in a crisis. Spoiler alert: it gets worse from here. #Climate

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The single biggest way large entities seem to be reducing their carbon emissions is through accounting. Not by taking action to diminish the impact of the climate crisis before it’s too late; by changing some numbers on a spreadsheet. We’ve crafted an imaginary cage for ourselves where the physical world is secondary to our modeling of it. #Climate

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Directing funding from self-interested billionaire philanthropy to grassroots environmental justice organizations is wonderful to see. They're so much more likely to actually have an impact that will matter. And they need so much more support. #Climate

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Climate change comes for package deliveries - not because of the flights, but because of the trucks. The back of Amazon trucks can reach 135 degrees, with no cooling system. These are the same drivers who have trouble stopping for water or bathroom breaks. #Climate

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