When the AI boom subsides, the data centers will remain. What we do now matters
Data centers are the new factories. How we think about the precedents they set matters.
When the dotcom boom came to a crashing end, the companies behind it imploded in sometimes spectacular ways, but the infrastructure they built continued to exist. That in turn laid the groundwork for Web 2.0, the cloud revolution, and everything that came afterwards.
When we think about the AI boom, we should consider what will be left behind: the infrastructure precedents being set that will be with us for a generation. If I was a betting person (I’m not), I’d put money down on the current crop of AI tech companies imploding at some point, with their assets acquired by companies like Microsoft and Google (who already own the majority of data centers). The applications will flounder, but the data centers will remain — and the energy infrastructure that enables them.
As the linked article notes:
“Data centers have always been energy-hungry, but the AI explosion is causing computing demand to skyrocket. The biggest data centers now consume as much electricity as small cities and are proliferating at breakneck speed.”
Data centers now account for 6% of US energy use, and their water use is similarly staggering. 13% of the underlying workloads are useless: zombie processes that have been left running by inattentive owners whose priorities now lie elsewhere. Beyond the environmental impacts, which are no joke, data center consumption is pushing up people’s bills and disrupting communities. And beyond that, they push up real estate costs, with real knock-on effects for communities. It’s no surprise, then, that legislation is being written to limit their growth.
It’s not that we shouldn’t have data centers. But their footprint is enormous, and the effects are sometimes disastrous. We need to consider the effect on people’s quality of life more than the impact to GDP, not least because economic indicators like these don’t actually show if people’s lives are improving.
It’ll be an arms race: developers are considering building distributed data centers into people’s homes, making them harder to regulate. Presumably homeowners will be sold on the upside, but when the market crashes will be saddled with obsolete tech that comes at a cost to them.
My take: require them to be built with self-sufficient renewable energy that pushes excess capacity to the grid and encourage the development of new architectures that don’t require water cooling to the same degree. Outlaw the widespread practice of building data centers using shell companies that obscure their real ownership. And ensure they are taxed robustly nationwide, so that revenues can benefit local communities.
In a few years, when the hype cycle dies down and people understand the capabilities and limitations of AI with clearer eyes, we’ll have a ton of new infrastructure that can’t easily be turned down — and we will have set energy consumption precedents that will be hard to reverse. Now is the time to set the right standards, and for communities to push back against what they won’t tolerate.
